EXPERIMENTAL PROTOTYPE · NOT FOR USE

This page is an unvalidated research prototype. Outputs are model projections, not betting advice, and have not been backtested or independently audited. No warranty, express or implied. Past performance does not predict future results. Sports betting carries financial risk; only those 21+ in jurisdictions where it is legal should consider wagering. For information on responsible play, see our responsible gambling page or call 1-800-GAMBLER. By viewing this page you acknowledge it is provided for evaluation and educational purposes only.

Live Comeback Stacks

BETA · LIVErefreshes every 18s

Bets the moneyline on a team trailing early in an MLB game (innings 1–6) when the historical comeback probability beats the de-vigged live book consensus by ≥3 percentage points. Stack 2–3 picks across independent games for outsized payouts. MLB only in v1 — NHL is structurally negative-EV at standard live moneyline vig (the model is multi-sport-ready and we may re-enable NHL once a stale-soft-book detector exists).

How the model works

The MLB lookup table is interpolated from Tango/Stoll Retrosheet win-expectancy data (1957–2024 sample). For each in-progress game we fetch live moneylines from The Odds API, de-vig two-way per book, take the median consensus, and compute model EV against the best book offer. Picks that pass edge ≥ 3pp,EV ≥ +5%, and a 30–55% probability band are surfaced. Stacks add an independence constraint (no two legs from the same game) and an American-odds cap (≤+800 for 2-leg, ≤+2000 for 3-leg).

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