A goalie on zero rest posts ~1 percentage-point lower SV% than a rested starter — but books rarely move total-saves lines enough to reflect it. We pull each team’s schedule, compute rest days and dense-trip flags, then tilt by opponent shot-for rate too.
Model: market probabilities de-vigged pair-wise, then tilted by opponent shot-for rate (55%), starter rest days (30%), and dense-trip density (15%). Rest derived from api-web.nhle.com schedule. EV% is expected return per $1 staked at American odds — positive means the book underpriced the side relative to the tilt-adjusted projection. Bet responsibly.