Books price a player’s SOG line off their personal shot rate, but barely adjust for who they’re skating with or who they’re facing. We de-vig the market, tilt by team linemate quality, team shot-for rate, and opponent shot-suppression, then surface the spots where the adjusted number beats the line.
Model: market probabilities de-vigged pair-wise, then tilted by a weighted mix of team linemate quality (50%), team shot-for rate (25%), and opponent shot-suppression (25%). Team profiles are seeded from 5v5 metrics and refreshed monthly. EV% is expected return per $1 staked at American odds — positive means the book underpriced the side relative to the tilt-adjusted projection. Bet responsibly.